Can you believe it’s been almost 6 years since Alessandro Michele unveiled his inaugural Gucci collection? At the time, my former store, Carson Street Clothiers, was entering what we called its 2.0 phase — when we began moving beyond #menswear and towards transforming into a capital-F Fashion destination. So it was of utmost importance that I held an opinion on the matter.
Everyone on the international fashion month circuit agreed that it was daring and beautiful — and did you hear? Alessandro only had a week to cut the collection with his ateliers! Bravo, bellissimo! By the time we got to Paris, the group think had taken hold: if you critiqued Gucci, that’s because you were a philistine.
I thought it was gloriously awful. That is to say: awful in a way only Italians could be — the absolute best kind of awful. Like pistachio-ice-cream-with-a-cappuccino-after-a-3000-calorie-dinner awful. Or, awful, but in some hyper-aware, meta way, kinda great? Or, so awful that you’re immediately intrigued and want to like it out of sheer irony, in spite of its inherent awfulness.
Whatever your opinion, one fact shined through: this was different. And during a time where miasmic Millenially-blanded branding was being passed off as “luxury,” Gucci pushed the industry to new heights. Indeed, while Demna and Virgil received the lion’s share of attention, I think one could argue that it was Alessandro who really planted the flag and ushered in the post modern meme fashion period in which we are currently still living (and hopefully just about to exit). Head-holding runway models, real-fake collabs, billboard memes, referential product that should not be used for its…“intended”…purpose — Gucci harbingered how Gen Z would surpass Millennials as the most influential fashion generation.
As marketers, forecasters and designers tried forcememe-ing the world into believing Gen Zers are simply turbo Millennials, Gucci was uncovering that they are more garish, in-your-face, maximalist, sarcastic, sardonic and unapologetic than their concrete floor, white brick wall and succulent loving woke older (and lamer) siblings. Millennial Pink? Nah, how bout BOOGER GREEN?
Fashion is driven by youth culture, and clearly youth culture is what drives Gucci. This in turn trickled down to the consumer level: when it came to the clientele — from the head-to-toe track-suit-wearing crusty 47 year-young drug dealer to the Marmont bag toting grandma pussy-bow-wearing grandma — everyone felt just a little younger (and fReShEr) in Gucci.
Whether or not you agree with the above observations, one thing is undeniable: Gucci’s meteoric rise was unmatched — not by Louis Vuitton, not by Balenciaga (other Gen Z favorites, of course). At two-thirds of Kering’s revenue and over 80% of its profits, this should be clear. The brand was, and still is, an absolute behemoth. So why did its sales decline over 20% in 2020 while the rest of Kering’s (and LVMH’s) portfolio remain flat or grow modestly during the same period?
Analysts and industry types would have you believe it’s not due to Covid (just see those numbers above). But what this newsletter presupposes is: maybe it is?
Ride with me for a second. With no arena entrances, award shows, world tours or international tourism to feed the beast, how could Gucci ever maintain its cachet and relevance? When you rely on this sort of energy, is it really surprising that The Big Q™ would cause a big dip in revenue? It’s no secret that a broad swath of people consumed by popular culture are desperate to emulate the style of rockstars, so when said rockstars are sitting at home in quarantine for a year, wouldn’t it necessarily follow that their spell on the average person would eventually break. You know, out of sight, out of mind? Finally, with other luxury houses (even those who jumped feet-first into bed with streetwear the last few years) moving in a more demure, luxurious and comfortable direction, is it really that crazy to think a move toward a more mature and polished look would inevitably overcome the overpoweringly post-modern streetwear-driven look that appealed to Gen Z so very much over the last 5 or so years?
As if that wasn’t enough, and this would be a topic for a whole ‘nother newsletter, outside the celebrity and pop cultural ecosystem, I would posit that Gucci is actually pretty behind the curve when it comes to real culturally significant innovation. Notably, their video game efforts have been trash, their artist collaborations have been trashy and their affinity among the indie, grassroots cool guy crowd has been pretty much nonexistent.
When the flywheel stops, a subsequent crash can be swift and devastating. While I am not writing off the possibility of a revival within a revival, the chances to me seem unlikely. And there’s no amount of collaborations with The North Face that can change my mind. When the fashion gods speak, they are resolute. This is the way.
Maybe I’m wrong — maybe everything I’ve posited above is just theoretical, outside-the-box cultural conjecture. Or maybe it is as simple as when you ravenously eat from the trough, you eventually are Spirited Away. Whatever the case, Gucci will eventually and completely relinquish the throne. Question is: who will take their place?