» HADOUKEN « would you trust dart throwing monkeys with your money?
Since American economist Burton Malkiel's bestselling book A Random Walk Down Wall Street was released in 1973, a favorite debate tactic among efficient market doubters (specifically) and forecasting skeptics (more generally) has been appealing to the accuracy of blindfolded monkeys throwing darts. For a six-month period stretching from November 2000 until May 2001, the WSJ tested this thesis. In an article titled, "Blindfolded Monkey Beats Humans with Stock Picks," the results were clear: the average human is woeful at forecasting future events (well, at the very least determining stock market winners).
Since then, economists and psychologists like Jordan Ellenberg (The Power of Mathematical Thinking), Philip Tetlock & Dan Gardner (Superforecasting and The Good Judgment Project) and Daniel Kahneman (Thinking, Fast and Slow) have fleshed out this theory, mostly by poking holes in it, in an effort to figure out how human beings, even the most average of us, could develop better prediction skills. While there are some fantastic lessons to be learned by these brilliant authors, one cannot expect a nation of nearly 330 million to devote the time and energy necessary to become experts on loss aversion and auftstragtaktik. However, we should expect our leaders to be somewhat literate in matters like these, especially when it comes to re-forecasting in light of new information, a skill that requires humility, focus and accountability. And from my observations, I can't think of a single one who is.
Instead of spiraling down a 2000-word rabbit hole that explores how 43% of all American COVID-related deaths occurred inside of nursing homes, how 99.5% of all deaths within NYC were accompanied by an underlying condition,* how the CDC has issued new guidance that transmission from surfaces is unlikely, how an increase in suicides is far outpacing COVID deaths in many regions, or how mainstream news outlets are not practicing what they preach, I will stop here and leave the topic open for discussion on this week's OFFICE HOURS.**
And now, for some BIG links:
More help on evaluating odds, in this case, a piece on Less Wrong about the 50-50 conundrum.
A futuristic take on what the next wave of interactive software will bring (especially as we dive deeper into the phygital world -- it's called Minimum Viable Metaverse, get used to it).
Some Studio Ghibli backgrounds that for your next Zoom meeting.
Speaking of Studio Ghibli, the launch of HBO Max brings with it all of their films (which were heretofore unavailable in the US) along with an incredible list of other strong content.
HACK FOR AT&T WIRELESS SUBSCRIBERS: If you have an Unlimited Elite plan (which, at $50 a month, is already a great deal), you get HBO Max for free.
An insightful piece by Flashes & Flames on the future of trade shows.
For my money, Epic Games (Fortnite, Unreal Engine etc.) will be the greatest winner of our phygital future. Check out this encyclopedic tome on the company's present and future state by Matthew Ball, former Head of Strategy at Amazon Studios.
And don't forget to see how their Unreal Engine powers textured digital landscapes, a cinematographic revolution that really shined in Disney's The Mandalorian.
If that's not enough, their next gen Unreal Engine 5 is batshit insane.
Finally, while an Animal Crossing fashion show is certainly interesting if not kind of useless to brands (beyond showing that they are ahead of the curve and culturally relevant), it does make you wonder where we end up when all these technologies begin to come together and disrupt legacy industries (like fashion).
On the normalization of mass surveillance as we emerge from COVID.
Amazing how a majority of Americans rallied behind Edward Snowden but are totally chill about surveillance in other contexts.
* This data was viewed less than 5000 times and downloaded less than 250 times. I find this to be incredibly sad--we'd rather be fed information by others than read it for ourselves.
** As you can probably tell, I am in favor (and always have been in favor) of broadly reopening the entire country/economy. That said, I continue to take precautions for myself and others, from wearing a mask in public to maintaining distance from others to simply taking agency for my actions and encouraging others, including those elderly and infirm about whom I care, to do the same. So please don't come at me with some odd "anti-virus truther" comments--not saying you will, as most who find themselves reading my newsletters, I'd imagine, are a bit more intellectually curious and tolerant than your average bear. That's a compliment, take it :)